As recognised by the NHS’s Five Year Forward View, by 2020 the NHS will need to find savings of around £22 billion in order to balance its books. But there has been no clear articulation of how that gap is expected to be closed. The options for doing so include NHS providers becoming more efficient; NHS commissioners reducing the pace at which NHS activity is increasing each year, either through reducing demand or limiting access to care; more funding for the NHS; or some combination of these. This analysis examines different scenarios to determine exactly what it would take to close the gap.
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